On the website Forbes an article by Frank Holmes was published, speculating that Bitcoin adoption could reach 10 % by the end of the decade.
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According to Forbes, Bitcoin will reach mass adoption in 2050
Holmes quotes recent research blockchain infrastructure by Blockware Solutions, examining historical adoption trends for a number of previous revolutionary technologies such as automobiles, radio, the Internet, smartphones, and more.
Research has revealed varying rates of adoption of these technologies, but in all cases growth has become parabolic after reaching 10 % populations.
Blockware further predicts that the global adoption of Bitcoin will exceed 10 % population in 2030 and then its growth may become parabolic until it reaches 80 % population in the next 20 years. So it is predicted that after 2050 four out of five people in the world will be using BTC.
All this despite the fact that until now BTC has never been used on a large scale as a means of payment.
In order for Bitcoin to be used by the masses, it must be used as a transaction currency, i.e. a currency for payments. Instead, BTC has so far emerged primarily as a hedge against expansionary central bank monetary policy, especially for those with cash savings.
The Blockware Solutions report does not actually list usage as a means of payment as a necessary step to achieve mass adoption of Bitcoin, but merely assesses the rate of diffusion among the population, regardless of the type of actual usage.
In fact, they clearly specify that one of Bitcoin's strongest features is its own " ideological malleability' , making it usable as an inflation hedge, a digital payment system, a decentralized settlement system, and a censorship-resistant borderless remittance asset.
Will Bitcoin's Value Follow the Adoption Curve?
According to the report, Bitcoin adoption will reach saturation faster than many technologies in the past, thanks to direct monetary incentives for adoption and the most efficient state of information dissemination ever achieved on the Internet.
Currently on-chain data shows that Bitcoin is still in the slow phase of the adoption curve, so an initial acceleration is expected in the current decade until 2030, which will be followed by a strong acceleration andwithin a year 2050.
Bottom line, the editors of the Blockware Solutions report specify that all predictive models are actually bad, but at least some have been shown to be useful. As such, their report is not intended to serve as a short-term scientific trading tool, but as a conceptual guide for long-term Bitcoin investors.
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