Bitcoin price falls to multi-month low, but data points to possible short-term rebound

March started at a low due to resurgence of inflation concerns. On March 7, comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced market expectations for a 50 basis point hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 22-23.

On March 8, the U.S. government transferred $1 billion worth of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road, sparking fears of a sell-off. Later that day, Silvergate Capital Corp confirmed its collapse and planned to voluntarily liquidate its crypto positions. The week’s events sent Bitcoin to a multi-week low of $19,910.

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A surge in negative sentiment may prevent a rebound

The spate of bad news and price declines caused a sharp decline in the Coinbase Premium Index, provided by analytics platform CryptoQuant, which measures the difference in trading prices on Coinbase and Binance. Higher prices indicate stronger demand in the US compared to the rest of the world. The premium fell to a two-month low on the morning of March 9 as negative news piled up.

Analytics company Santiment announcedthat fear, doubt and uncertainty (FUD) is settling in the markets, increasing the “probabilities” of adverse price jumps during this “period of distrust.”

However, the funding rate for BTC perpetual swaps is still neutral, with no major liquidations in the futures market. It does not show a significant negative bias that would suggest the possibility of a short squeeze. The Fear and Greed Index also fell to a two-month low of 44, but remained well above historical bounce levels between 10 and 25. This suggests that any positive gains are likely to be short-lived.

In addition to the negative sentiment, on-chain data shows positive accumulation among the most critical stakeholders, miners and whales. Bitcoin miner holdings have been on the rise since the beginning of 2023 and are heading for a six-month high. Glassnode data also shows an increase in the number of Bitcoin wallets with more than 1,000 BTC.

The realized price of BTC is currently $19,800. Historically, this metric has been a key line for b749 reversals. If prices fall back below this level, it could erase the gains from early 2023 and throw the market back into a long-term bearish trend.

Fed rate hike

The upcoming Fed rate hike is the most important piece of the puzzle that traders need to solve before placing bets. A higher CPI, due out on March 14, could send global markets into uncertainty that will build up until the Fed meeting later this month.

Technically, BTC/USD fell below the February lows of $21,400, triggering a broader sell-off towards the $20,650 support level. The pair may slide back into a bearish trend towards the 2022 lows as this support failed to hold. A subsequent daily close below this level would be a strong bearish sign.

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All content in this article is for informational purposes only and does not in any way serve as investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies, commodities and stocks is very risky and can lead to capital losses.